I think Wisconsin is one of those weird states that is actually two states: Dane and Milwaukee counties, and everywhere else. I certainly am not the first to have observed that. Another, related consideration that I think will provide further surprising results in November is the white male demographic. Despite reassuring poll numbers (to me also, as a Democrat), I think some real curveballs lie ahead thanks to precisely that group. I promised myself never to become a bitter middle-aged person, but never even bothered to worry about becoming an angry white male. Now I do sometimes have that worry.
I will go so far as to admit concern that the proud, fighting male soul is endangered. I think just navigating the waters of everyday life has become so onerous for us, and many times there is too little appreciation. Sometimes I just feel like Vice President Biden is on the margins of the Obama campaign's marketing (though admittedly enjoying a much greater role in the administration than he would have ever gained on his own), while First Lady Michelle Obama is featured in campaign advertising. Featuring Mrs. Obama in campaign advertisements is in accordance with the marketing wisdom that you can never play too much to your core demographic, while ignoring the real wisdom that preaching to the choir is usually a waste of time.
I have no doubt of President Obama's ability to address this issue and put to rest any fears or doubts. But I worry that he won't. I don't think the President suffers yes-men in his administration and would calmly accept the message that he is alienating white males in key states such as Wisconsin. But I fear that campaign insiders don't have that insight.
I come back to the awkward, unfortunate reality that President Obama needs to address the uncomfortable feeling many people in the Midwest--male and female, majority and minority--have deep inside that they have been sold out by our government and our economy.